07.31.05
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Author: Peter L. Bernstein (Usually dispatched within 24 hours)
Outstanding Book of Clarity and Depth.There are books which the subject at hand could easily bore the lay person after the first chapter, however this is definetly not one of them. Shamefully, knowing little arithmetic(never mind maths), I was pleasantly ensnared in this feast of probability. It is written clearly and coherently and introduces the reader to a whole universe of number subjects which fascinated me from start to finish. From Pascals triangle to John Nash’s work on game theory, I understood broadly, every concept the author introduced.
Whether you are a student of Maths or Philosophy,History or Science, a bookworm or an occassionite, this book is for you.
I highly recommend this masterpiece.
Everything is a risk
Are you a private investor looking for handy tips on hot stocks? Good luck, but this might not be for you. You won’t find get-rick-quick advice in this scholarly work, but you might learn why you’re drawn to actively managed funds despite their history of market underperformance. You’ll also be enriched by the stories and depth of research here. Another reviewer objects that Bernstein credits the Greek mathematicians with less understanding of probability than a school child. It seemed to me that Bernstein is saying something different: Even if Socrates had a private opinion about the frequency of VI on an astragali roll it wasn’t a respectable part of his intellectual framework. He might of known it, but he refused to study it.
The author clearly considers his subject the most important in history, and in 330 pages identifies every significant step in the development of *thinking about* risk. In some ways though, the focus is too narrow. It becomes clear towards the end of the book that he has been building up the strands of probability theory as precursors to the ‘taming of risk’ in modern financial theory. I was hoping that an ambitious work on the history of probability would include the discovery that all of reality is based on chance, but you can search the index for ‘Quantum Mechanics’ in vain. (However ‘Quant’ is there - Bernstein himself was once a financial mathematician.)
In a subject as huge as risk there will always be more to say, and what is included here makes a cohesive whole whilst being important or interesting in it parts. Ok, maybe you don’t love chance as much as me - what you need to know about portfolio theory is in Chapter 12 onwards - you’ll still have 140 pages of important results. It’s even topical, Kahneman’s Prospect Theory is covered in detail (and he won the Nobel last year).
A superb popularisation of a complex subject
Bernstein has managed to take a subject which at first sight seems intensely boring, and has made it fascinating.
Whether or not you have any interest in Risk, Statistics or Econimics, you owe it to yourself to read this book. It is quite simply a “Ripping Yarn”. Its greatness lies in Bernstein’s ability to tell the story in an accessible manner, without dumbing down the essential facts.
Let me say it again: Read this book because it is a fascinating and well written story. The fact you will know a lot more about Risk at the end of it is an incidental, but very welcome, extra.